Goal-Line Guide Week 9

Welcome to Goal-Line Guide Week 9, my attempt to better predict TD production for fantasy football.

The weekly Goal-Line Grades for each team, separated by Rushing and Passing, can be used as a way to predict one aspect of fantasy success. For a full explanation of the methodology, you can read a previous article, outlining my process.

Here are all of the Goal-Line Grades for Week 9.

Team Rushing Goal-Line Grade Passing Goal-Line Grade
Arizona Cardinals 77.5 48.5
Atlanta Falcons 57.75 49.75
Baltimore Ravens 66.5 76
Buffalo Bills 72.25 88.25
Carolina Panthers 48 77
Chicago Bears 56.75 78.75
Cincinnati Bengals 69.75 94.5
Cleveland Browns 72.75 63.75
Dallas Cowboys 82.5 114.5
Denver Broncos 59.5 81.5
Green Bay Packers 67.25 71.75
Houston Texans 69.25 94.75
Indianapolis Colts 64.5 66
Jacksonville Jaguars 72.25 70.75
Kansas City Chiefs 83.25 83.25
Las Vegas Raiders 71.5 84.5
Los Angeles Chargers 95 96
Los Angeles Rams 79.5 75.5
Miami Dolphins 59.25 82.75
Minnesota Vikings 65.5 80.5
New England Patriots 64 61
New Orleans Saints 60.25 71.75
New York Giants 55 88.5
New York Jets 40 89
Philadelphia Eagles 68 62
Pittsburgh Steelers 68.25 68.25
San Francisco 49ers 65.5 27.5
Tennessee Titans 75.5 53

Dallas Cowboys Passing Game

Goal-Line Grade: 114.5

The Cowboys hold the highest Goal-Line Grade of the week. Dallas has a score of 114.5, which is over 18 points greater than any other team in Week 9. On their own merit, the Cowboys are an impressive Goal-Line team especially throwing the football. 70% of their pass attempts from inside the 5-yard line have resulted in touchdowns. That is 2nd best in the entire NFL. Even more so, the Broncos are a favorable matchup for opposing offenses.

In terms of who most benefits on the team, the easy answer is Amari Cooper. He leads the Cowboys with 10 Red-Zone targets on the season. He is also the only player on Dallas with multiple touchdowns receptions in that area. After Cooper, the next most likely player to score a TD is Ezekiel Elliott. He is actually 2nd on the team in Red-Zone targets and leads the Cowboys in targets from inside the 10-yard line. Elliott could also find the end zone on the ground. Dallas' rushing game has the 3rd best Running Goal-Line Grade.

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Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Goal-Line Grade: 95

Passing Goal-Line Grade: 96

The highest Rushing Goal-Line Grade of the week belongs to the Chargers. Naturally, Austin Ekeler would benefit the most since he has all of his team's Goal-Line carries. He also contributes in the passing game. Ekeler would certainly be aided by the fact that the Chargers Passing Goal-Line Grade is even better.

At 95 and 96 respectively, the Chargers' Ground and Air Goal-Line Grades are behind only the Cowboys Passing for the week. Aside from Ekeler, the players most likely to find the end-zone are Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. That WR duo have combined for over half of the Chargers Red-Zone targets on the season.

Houston Texans Passing Attack

Goal-Line Grade: 94.75

Coming in at 3rd on the Week 9 Passing Goal-Line Grade (and 4ht overall) are the Texans. A significant part of this particular grade is the matchup. The Dolphins have allowed a TD on 83% of the pass attempts they have faced inside their own 5-yard line. That is 4th  highest rate in the league. So far, it has been useful to target the Miami passing defense.

This will especially hold true if Tyrod Taylor does in fact start the game. With improved QB play, look for target leader Brandin Cooks to produce solid numbers. Aside from Cooks, Jordan Akins and David Johnson are the only Houston players with more than 2 Red-Zone targets.

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New York Jets Passing Goal-Line Grade: 89

New York Giants Passing Goal-Line Grade: 88.5

Both of the New York teams grade out well as far as the Goal-Line Guide Week 9 is concerned. With the 5th and 6th best Passing Goal-Line Grades respectively, I like both of their matchups this week. The Colts and the Raiders have vulnerable passing defenses inside their own 5-yard line.

Now to figure out which players benefit is the difficult part. Sterling Shepard leads the Giants in Red-Zone targets, but he has not practiced yet this week with a quad injury. Next on the list are actually two tight ends, Kyle Rudolph and Evan Engram. Both may be playable, especially in TE premium formats.

As for the Jets, it appears to be a little simpler. Jamison Crowder and Corey Davis currently combine for 12 of the Jets 25 Red-Zone targets on the season. However, with Davis not likely to play in Week 9, that makes Crowder a strong start candidate.

Red Zone data curtsey of 4for4.

Thank you for reading Goal-Line Guide Week 9. Be sure to check out all of the great NFL content available on Full Press Coverage.

– Kyle Senra is the managing editor for the Full Press Fantasy Sports. He covers the NFL. Like and follow on and Facebook.