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As we look ahead to Week 4 of the 2023 NFL schedule, we once again have plenty of juicy matchups. There are plenty of games that feel tight going in. Therefore, many games present pause when attempting to pick a winner. The same can also be said when picking which teams cover this week.
In terms of betting, there are a plethora of exciting options. This is true of both moneyline and spread picks. Plus, we are going to have many advantageous options to monitor for specific player props. Who has the best odds of pulling off an upset in Week 4? Which teams hold betting value to possibly cover as an underdog?
It is time to list my favorite plays of the week, with my favorite bets for teams with either the moneyline or the spread. To boot, I will also list a few player props that stand out for Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season. Let's kick it off.
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
Best Bets: Moneyline
Of course, we are not going to list every team for the moneyline category. It is also important to note that we are looking to list the bets that hold the most potential value out of our given options. With that in mind, here are three teams that I like to win straight up in Week 4, who also hold a fair amount of betting value.
Atlanta Falcons: +130 Odds
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The Jacksonville Jaguars have generally played well in their annual trip to London. But in the first of two straight games over there, Jacksonville is looking for answers for a struggling offense. Atlanta has been a stingy defense, especially in the secondary. That may not be good news for Jacksonville and their passing attack currently. Moreover, the Falcons have the offensive line and running game to truly counteract the attacking, multiple defense of Jacksonville. I lean Atlanta somewhat handily to win outright as an underdog.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +140 Odds
This is definitely a tough matchup to predict between Tampa Bay and New Orleans. Sure, the Buccaneers offense struggled last week, as Baker Mayfield looked rushed and hurried all night. The Saints have also had a pretty good start to the year defensively. Nonetheless, Mayfield may enter this matchup with perhaps less pressure than former Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston. With Derek Carr expected to be out with a shoulder injury, Winston goes up against a Tampa Bay defense that has mostly been physical. In a tight game, I lean Mayfield over Winston right now, in terms of making less mistakes.
Indianapolis Colts: -112 Odds
The Colts and Rams matchup is certainly a tight one, on paper. Indianapolis has been largely impressive offensively. They may deserve more attention for how well the defense is playing, however. That is especially true, given how young that defense is, overall. The Rams looked lost upfront when having to face opposing pressure last week. That same result could occur again this week, as the Colts have already registered 12 sacks. That is tied with the Bills and the Cowboys for the second-most in the league right now. Lastly, Zack Moss has found his groove in an offense that will lean on the running backs a bit.
Best Bets: Spread
Betting on teams to cover the spread is not always about taking someone who you feel should easily cover, whether that is the favorite or the underdog. However, finding teams that play hard or matchups that have historically been close are key. Finding the number that you believe is possibly too low or too high is also key. You can then thread the needle on either side of the betting odds with whoever you believe holds the better betting value. Here are three teams that offer fair betting value in Week 4 when looking at the spread.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +3 at New Orleans Saints
We will go to the well of the Buccaneers once again. Besides the reasons mentioned above, there are some items that stand out, when it comes to taking Tampa Bay with the spread. These two teams generally played lower-scoring games against each other. In five of the last six meetings between Tampa Bay and New Orleans, the under has hit for total points. Finally, the Saints have played in one-score games in all games this year, as well as eight of their last 10 games, dating back to last season.
Cleveland Browns: -1 vs Baltimore Ravens
This may seem like a crazy gamble or belief to place in the Cleveland Browns. For example, Baltimore just had a gritty, road division win a couple of weeks ago. This game could be very similar. Though, it is hard not to have a little concern about the Ravens offense so far. Add in a Cleveland defense under new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz that is first in points allowed and yards allowed, and I like the Browns to pull away and cover. The Browns offense has also found some names to lean on without Nick Chubb, as well.
Arizona Cardinals: +14 at San Francisco 49ers
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It may be difficult to bet against the San Francisco 49ers in any circumstance. Yet, the Arizona Cardinals could legitimately be 3-0 right now. While everyone believed that this team would hold the number one overall pick next year, Arizona has been playing hard and physical. They blew a fourth-quarter lead in each of their first two games. And then last week, they make the Dallas Cowboys look foolish after Dallas' hot start. Given that it is a division game, it is hard not to say that the Cardinals cover. They have been battling their tails off. Interestingly, Kyle Shanahan is only a combined 5-7 vs Arizona as San Francisco head coach.
Favorite Player Props
Player prop bets can sometimes be tricky to find the perfect betting value. Some star players do not consistently produce at a high clip, especially when factoring in the early portion of the season. Nevertheless, here are four player prop bets that I enjoy for the fourth weekend of NFL action.
Gabe Davis: Over 43.5 Receiving Yards
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The Buffalo Bills have a tough matchup against the upstart Miami Dolphins in western New York. Miami has certainly had a dominant start to the season. Though, they have not won in Buffalo in quite a while. With the idea being that there will be a lot of points, the Bills may feel like they need to score on nearly every possession. If that is the case, Josh Allen may look to feed Gabe Davis often. Davis averages a lot of yards per game and per catch, despite not always garnering the most targets. With how many explosive plays he gets, I like Davis to pass this figure in a high-flying game.
Rashid Shaheed: Over 36.5 Receiving Yards
Even though I like Tampa Bay to win, Rashid Shaheed could be receiving plenty of touches in this game. It is difficult to know who Winston will target the most. Either way, Shaheed has been a source of production more so than most other Saints skill players so far. If they continue to get him the rock, Shaheed could be bound to get over this number with only a few chunk gains.
Ezekiel Elliott: Over 27.5 Rushing Yards
It is a return to Dallas to face his old team for Ezekiel Elliott. That note alone could be motivating to take this over. On top of that, the amount of carries that Elliott received last week was encouraging. New England allowed him to run it 16 times last game. All told, he averaged five yards per carry in that contest, as well as over four yards per carry this season. If those amount of touches continue, Elliott could make it to this number relatively simply.
Dameon Pierce: Over 47.5 Rushing Yards
This rushing figure is a bit larger. Sure, Dameon Pierce has fallen short of this mark in all three games individually this year. Houston has utilized him at a healthy dose, though, totaling 40 carries through three games. More importantly, this appears to be an advantageous matchup for the Texans rushing attack. The Pittsburgh Steelers are one of the best defenses in the league. But with new faces at linebacker, and an injury to Cam Heyward, Pittsburgh has been woeful in run defense to open the year. The Steelers rank 29th in both rushing yards allowed and yards per carry allowed.
Be on the lookout for more FPC NFL betting articles throughout this 2023 NFL season. For more great sports and NFL content, stay tuned to Full Press Coverage.
– Braden Holecek is the Kansas City Chiefs managing editor for Full Press Coverage. He covers the NFL. Like and follow on //platform.twitter.com/widgets.js //platform.twitter.com/widgets.js and Facebook.
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