[New post] Sam’s Conviction Column – NFL Week 7

Sam Scherman posted: "Intro There are certain types of contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel (as well as other Daily Fantasy Sites) where ownership, across any sport, is not something to focus on, i.e. head to heads, double ups, 50/50s, or a contest with less than 20 entran" New post on DFS Karma Sam's Conviction Column – NFL Week 7 by Sam Scherman Intro There are certain types of contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel (as well as other Daily Fantasy Sites) where ownership, across any sport, is not something to focus on, i.e. head to heads, double ups, 50/50s, or a contest with less than 20 entrants; however, when playing large field GPP tournaments and gunning for that $1 million prize, or even just a top 10 in a contest of 100k+ entrants, ownership is IMPERATIVE when constructing your rosters. While I would never make the argument that ownership is everything, or the most important aspect of playing/winning DFS, I think many more people than we think overlook it and fall into groupthink more often than they should as a fear of "a cheap guy going off" or playing someone at 50% or more projected ownership to ensure not getting dusted by the field. Again, in cash games or very small field tournaments, I get that idea, as playing an obvious backup RB who's locked into an every down roll and 20+ touches and is the min $4,000 on DraftKings and is going to be owned by 45 of 50 players in a tournament… yes, I would probably play him since you have just about 0% chance of cashing if he goes off. The last thought to keep in mind, and perhaps the most important, is being contrarian does not mean making a lineup of 9 guys less than 5% owned… that is not by any means optimal and not a +EV strategy in any DFS sport. What I like to do each and every week is use a strategy by one of the pioneers of DFS Football, Adam Levitan (check out their stuff at EstablishTheRun because their team is very, very sharp), which is figure out my ACO, or "Average Cumulative Ownership," on all my tournament teams. To calculate that is simple, add up all 9 players ownership, and divide by 9 and look to target somewhere in the range of 9-16% (16% is the absolute max that I will have) for your whole team. If CMC is going to be 35% owned, that doesn't mean an auto fade, it just means you have to differentiate elsewhere because his ceiling is insane and he's not someone to fade just because "he's chalk." That's enough rambling, let's get to the picks! Links to other content! Week 7 Position by Position Breakdown Week 7 Cash Process Projections Portal NFL Game Theory WR/CB Matchups Ben's Week 7 Breakdown! (Article) Core Plays   QB Patrick Mahomes Karma Position Rank: 1 DK Proj. OWN%            12.4% FD Proj. OWN%            18.1% Why? → Dealing with one of the worst defenses in the league, there's no reason to believe the Chiefs won't stay pass-happy and take advantage of the Titans horrendous secondary that's giving up the 7th most DK/FD points per game with approx. 23 points on each site being given up to QBs… He's expensive but I don't need to explain all his attributes because he's tied with Lamar in my projections for the highest ceiling, even without the same rushing upside, as Mahomes' volume is near unmatched, dropping back an average of 46 times per game Matthew Stafford Karma Position Rank: 3 DK Proj. OWN%            10.0% FD Proj. OWN%            11.6% Why? → We get a near identical situation this week as the Rams face a terrible defense and their running back is projected for heavy chalk while everyone not named Cooper Kupp is projected 10% or less… Stafford leads all QBs on the slate in Net Adj. Yards per Pass (9.34), ranks 2nd in points per drop back (per PFF), and the Rams have the highest implied Vegas team total on the slate… yes, we don't expect a back and forth shootout, but with the Rams cruising last week, Stafford still put up 4 TDs/250 pass yards and 26 fantasy points Matt Ryan Karma Position Rank: 10 DK Proj. OWN%            4.2% FD Proj. OWN%            2.0% Why? → I thought I had fully quit Matt Ryan, and I probably will after he lets me down again, but he trails only Tom Brady in pass attempts per game this season (41 on average) and facing a broken Dolphins defense that's given up 300+ pass yards in 3 of their last 4 games and has the 3rd lowest Adj. Sack Rate of defenses on the slate… I'll take a shot and hope that maybe Ryan finally feeds Ridley/Pitts instead of the continued, and insane, usage of Patterson Derek Carr Karma Position Rank: 11 DK Proj. OWN%            7.0% FD Proj. OWN%            4.5% Why? → In 6 games this season, Carr has thrown for 341+ yards in 4 of them and is averaging 42 drop backs per game (PFF) to along with 9.4 IAY/PA (Intended Air Yards per Attempt), which ranks 3rd in the NFL of QBs with at least 100 pass attempts this season; in a game where I don't expect the Raiders D to be stopping Hurts and his supporting cast whatsoever, I can see this game playing out where Carr finds himself throwing nearly 40 times (or more) and I will bet on the volume that we've seen thus far in what should be a lower owned QB option Chalk I'm On → Lamar Jackson // Jalen Hurts Chalk I'm Off → N/A as I don't have any QB projected for insane ownership (top is Lamar at between 13-17% pOWN on both DK and FD) Tier 1 Darrell Henderson Jr. Karma Position Rank: 1 DK Proj. OWN%            20.9% FD Proj. OWN%            19.9% Why? → Despite continued strong performances by Henderson, his price still remains too cheap in the 6k range on DK (flat 8k on FD) where he now gets a matchup against the lowly Lions, who are giving up an average of 33 DK and 29 FD points to RBs this season, good for 2nd worst in the league behind the Jets… Henderson, when healthy, is in a near bell cow role with nearly 70% of the RB touches inside the 10, 72% inside the 5, and 4.2 High Value Touches ("HVTs"; per Ben Gretch) per game and he feels like a cash game lock given the horrific RB options we have on the main slate D'Andre Swift Karma Position Rank: 8 DK Proj. OWN%            19.4% FD Proj. OWN%            11.6% Why? → I will continue to write up Swift every week because he carries such a high floor/ceiling combo with his targets, averaging 7 per game, and leads all RBs on the slate in HVTs with 42 on the season, or seven (7!) per game… is the matchup or game script good? Absolutely not; however, Swift is the go-to guy for checkdowns and despite being a strong defense and ranking 11th in Rush DVOA (per FootballOutsiders), the Rams have still given up an average of 24.6 DK and 20.7 FD Points per game to RBs so Swift's path to a ceiling is very possible…. Yes Jamaal Williams is still a thing, and still annoying, but Swift's 10-12 rush attempts per game combined with 6-8 targets, with 40% of those being HVTs, I will lock and load each week Chuba Hubbard Karma Position Rank: 7 DK Proj. OWN%            16.9% FD Proj. OWN%            15.5% Why? → This one feels risky as it could end up being some over-owned chalk, but Hubbard is facing a Giants defense that's given up 162 rush yards per game over their last 3 and despite some initial concerns about a split backfield, Hubbard has out snapped Royce Freeman 3/1 over the last 3 weeks and although I wish he was getting much more work in the RZ (only 24% of the RB RZ work thus far), with the great matchup and snap share, I'm willing to bet on a strong performance for Hubbard Tier 2 Leonard Fournette Karma Position Rank: 5 DK Proj. OWN%            16.2% FD Proj. OWN%            20.5% Why? → It's become pretty clear at this point that this is Lenny's backfield, at least to an extent, with a 3/1 snap ratio to both RoJo and Gio Bernard… despite a "good" Chicago defense, they rank 23rd in Rush DVOA and 6th in Pass DVOA (Run funnel!) and even though the Bucs pass so much no matter the score or game script, Lenny has more than carved out a role as he trails only Swift in HVTs this season with 36! I was shocked to see that as well, but he's getting 56% of the RB RZ work, 72% of the work inside the 5, and a total of 18-20 touches per game. As the 5th highest price RB on DK, (8th highest on FD), I wasn't expecting this ownership so I'll hope it comes in lower and while we know the Bucs will pass, a multi-TD Lenny game is certainly in play Miles Sanders Karma Position Rank: 13 DK Proj. OWN%            14.2% FD Proj. OWN%            15.7% Why? → I do expect some chalk here as 1) there's been some coach speak on getting him more involved and 2) he's just way too cheap, priced at 5100 on DK, 5900 on FD, and facing a Raiders D that has given up the 12th most fantasy points to RBs this season. Over the last 3 weeks, Sanders' snap % has gone from 64% > 75% > 83% with 16 opportunities in Week 5 and 13 opportunities in Week 6. The usage is certainly not ideal with Sanders getting about 50% of the opportunities but it's encouraging to see his snap share increases and if nothing else, he's so cheap that he doesn't need to put up 30+ to hit value Tier 3 Damien Harris Karma Position Rank: 9 DK Proj. OWN%            7.4% FD Proj. OWN%            8.3% Why? → We can start with the (obvious) bad part of Harris which is his non-involvement in the pass game (9 total targets on the season) and the Pats propensity to use multiple RBs; however, in the positive section, Harris is getting over 70% of the work inside the 5, 63% of the work inside the 10, and his matchup is against the Jets, who have given up the most fantasy points per game to RBs this season (30+ on each site). Harris has the 6th most missed tackles forced of all RBs this season (per PFF) and 8th in yards after contact, despite only having 81 attempts… the lack of targets sucks, but his volume + price + matchup makes him a great GPP option Chalk I'm On → Derrick Henry if pOWN% is below 18% // Darrel Williams if pOWN% is below 20% // Aaron Jones Chalk I'm Off → Josh Jacobs (projected for 13.3% on DK/17.4% on FD) // Chase Edmonds and James Conner // Devontae Booker (currently pOWN% of 11.7% on DK/17.9% on FD) WR Tier 1 Cooper Kupp Karma Position Rank: 3 DK Proj. OWN%            21.9% FD Proj. OWN%            25.0% Why? → Kupp is the fantasy (PPR) WR1 this year through 6 weeks with 32% of the team targets, 33% of the team air yards, a Yards/Route Run of 3.2 (per PFF), a matchup against the Lions and their inability to stop deep passes (rank dead last in yards/attempt and dead last in explosive plays allowed to WRs, again per PFF), anddddddddd we can stop there because he's an elite play each and every week Calvin Ridley Karma Position Rank: 5 DK Proj. OWN%            16.1% FD Proj. OWN%            16.9% Why? → It's right that Ridley is in the write up this week because he's someone along with Robby Anderson that I just can't quit and that checks out with Ridley/Anderson tied among all WRs for largest difference between their actual PPR points and expected fantasy points! The Dolphins have a terrible defense and could be without outside corner Xavien Howard to make matters worse... further, despite no blow-up performances yet this year, Ridley is averaging 10.5 targets per game, has 49% (49!!!!!!) of the team's air yards, an aDOT of just under 11, and the Dolphins have given up the 2nd most fantasy points per game to WRs this season Brandin Cooks Karma Position Rank: 6 DK Proj. OWN%            11.2% FD Proj. OWN%            14.0% Why? → I've been avoiding Cooks thus far this season because I don't trust Davis Mills and the Texans are hardly even a team at this point; but I always say volume trumps everything in fantasy and Cooks is getting 50%, yes 50%, of his team's air yards this year, good for 29% of the team's targets, and 9.3 targets per game. The team sucks, their implied team total is a pathetic sub 15 points, and there's obviously major risk in terms of safety, but with his insane usage and now up to 6k on DK (6500 on FD), his ceiling compared to his price offers solid leverage Tier 2 Marquise Brown Karma Position Rank: 14 DK Proj. OWN%            5.6% FD Proj. OWN%            3.6% Why? → Brown is the ideal "GPP Ceiling" play each week because yes he drops the ball more than we'd like (mainly when I roster him), but he's getting 30% of the team's air yards, has an aDOT of 14.2, getting 7.2 targets per game, and while the Bengals D has been better than expected, they're still susceptible to giving up deep shots as shown by Davante Adams/Chase Claypool/Adam Thielen already this season Hunter Renfrow Karma Position Rank: 27 DK Proj. OWN%            11.9% FD Proj. OWN%            10.8% Why? → I'm not sure I've ever played Hunter Renfrow but he was showing up in some early-week optimals I was running (yikes) and while he can't be compared to the likes of a Tyreek Hill/Davante Adams/Kupp type ceiling, Philly is most susceptible in the slot compared to out wide and Renfrow's targets have been consistent with last week his first with under 6 targets (still had 5) and I'll take a shot especially if I'm playing Carr with Renfrow's 17% team target share, 6.8 targets per game, and quietly a 21% RZ target share to go on top Chris Godwin Karma Position Rank: 15 DK Proj. OWN%            9.3% FD Proj. OWN%            10.0% Why? → It's been a so-so year for Godwin, and he now finds himself as the cheapest Bucs WR option as AB has looked unstoppable and Evans continues to be a high aDOT option for Brady. When we dig deeper, yes Godwin's air yards share is much lower than the other 2, but their % of team targets are similar with Evans/Godwin at 17% and AB at 19%. It's kind of a roulette wheel each week for who's going to see a barrage of Brady's targets, but I don't expect Godwin to be shadowed by Jaylon Johnson (I think that goes to Evans) and as a middling WR2 this year, Godwin is always ripe for a 10+ target and 1-2 TD game with Brady at the helm Tier 3 Robby Anderson Karma Position Rank: 22 DK Proj. OWN%            4.2% FD Proj. OWN%            7.9% Why? → I'll just keep losing on Anderson because it's getting ridiculous at this point… he has 29 targets over his last 3 games (8th most in the NFL) yet has only turned that into 10 total catches for 87 yards and 1 TD at the end of the game last week… will it get better? Who knows, and I think there's a decent amount of blame on Darnold, not Robby, and with Terrace Marshall possibly sidelined + the Giants horrendous defense, I will once again hope that Robby can have one of his blow-up games (I'm not THAT crazy; he has 6.3 targets per game/28% air yards share) Darnell Mooney Karma Position Rank: 19 DK Proj. OWN%            8.9% FD Proj. OWN%            3.3% Why? → It would be great if Nagy was a competent coach because the Bucs run defense? Very good! Their pass defense? Not that good! In a game they should be trailing in, the Bears have an elite option in Mooney who is sporting an aDOT of 10.3, a 1.73 Yards/Route Run (PFF), and the usage is fantastic, as he's getting 6.3 targets per game and 32% of the air yards. I am concerned by how Fields will deal with the constant pressure from the Bucs pass rush combined with Nagy not wanting to throw the ball (27 pass attempts for Fields last week despite them trailing the entire thing by more than one score…????) but Mooney is cheap, and I think even with the Bears' woes, he can flash for some spike weeks Chalk I'm On → Davante Adams // Tyreek Hill // Tee Higgins Chalk I'm Off → Rashod Bateman if pOWN% is above 10% // Jakobi Meyers // Mecole Hardman if pOWN% is above 10% TE Darren Waller Karma Position Rank: 1 DK Proj. OWN%            12.0% FD Proj. OWN%            19.7% Why? → Ever since Week 1 and his 19-target outing, Waller has been ho-hum for the most part, but the targets/usage is there just not the points. This week he gets the Eagles who have allowed the 8th most fantasy points per game to TEs. If we remove the outlier 19, he's still averaging over 6 targets per game over his last 5, is seeing 30% of the RZ targets, and has a slightly higher targets per route than Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews/Mike Gesicki along with the highest overall target share of all TEs and highest WOPR of all TEs. The price is tough with Kelce barely more expensive, but he will come with low ownership and has a similar ceiling to Kelce Mark Andrews Karma Position Rank: 3 DK Proj. OWN%            11.5% FD Proj. OWN%            8.3% Why? → One of the most appealing parts of Andrews this week is 1) his price being 6K on DK (7500 on FD) should lead to slightly less ownership and 2) he's running a route on 94% of Lamar's drop backs, which is the highest of all TEs (i.e. he's not blocking hardly at all). Andrews hasn't seen less than 5 targets in any game this season and has been hot with 24 catches for 200+ yards and 3 TDs over his last 4 games Tyler Higbee Karma Position Rank: 10 DK Proj. OWN%            3.2% FD Proj. OWN%            4.9% Why? → Higbee is probably still only a TE that I would roster as part of a team and/or game stack and yes, Kupp/Woods are commanding a massive amount of the targets, but Higbee is still seeing 4-6 targets per game, 27% of the team's RZ targets, and has run the 7th most routes of all TEs this season through 6 weeks. His outcomes are more volatile than the top tier TEs, of course, but he's only 4500 and has solidified himself as an every-down TE this season. When the Rams face a team that actually tries to cover Kupp/Woods (good luck), Higbee could be in for a very, very big week C.J. Uzomah Karma Position Rank: 18 DK Proj. OWN%            1.5% FD Proj. OWN%            1.0% Why? → This place is thin, I know, and like Higbee I would definitely mainly use Uzomah as a piece of a stack since he likely needs at least 1 TD for a true "ceiling performance" but it's worth noting the Ravens have given up nearly 20 poitns per game to TEs and while many of those matchups were elite TEs, Jared Cook posted a solid game last week and this Ravens D has been ravaged by iinjuries. Uzomah has only run 3 less routes this season than Hunter Henry (151 vs. 154), only 19 less than Tyler Higbee and while he doesn't get the target volume of guys priced above him, he's running a route at the 8th highest rate of TEs this year and has caught a TD in 2 of his last 3 games Chalk I'm On → Travis Kelce // Mike Gesicki // Ricky Seals-Jones Chalk I'm Off → T.J. Hockenson // Cole Kmet Stacks Stacking has gotten increasingly popular each year as projections, correlations, and infinite amounts of information and stats available; however, in general, "the field" (large field GPPs) still don't stack nearly enough. Per Mike Leone from EstablishTheRun, the field played double stacks approximately 29% of the time in the weekly milly maker, which double stacks finished in the Top 100 nearly 40% of the time. Going further, the field had a bring back opponent, i.e. QB + WR + WR + an opposing team's WR/TE (mostly WR) approximately 35% of the time yet lineups with a bring back finished in the Top 100 53% of the time. The left side of this table shows our 5 stacks and opponents with the Vegas total at open and the current Vegas total along with the team's QB/RB and then Top 2 WRs (based on DK Price), TE, and the opposing team's Top 2 WRs (again, based on DK price). On the right side, we can use the stack's projected points, which for all players and positions can be found here, and provide how much of the salary cap is used, total projected ownership, and finally "OWN% Value", which evaluates the projected points of the stack compared to the total ownership to see if there is leverage along with upside. DraftKings Stacks - See below for some of my favorite stack options (click on image to enlarge) FanDuel Stacks - See below for some of my favorite stack options (click on image to enlarge) Sam Scherman | October 21, 2021 at 9:03 pm | Tags: DFS, DraftKings, Fanduel, Fantasy Football, featured, football | Categories: Football | URL: https://wp.me/pbkAom-Ky4 Unsubscribe to no longer receive posts from DFS Karma. Change your email settings at Manage Subscriptions. Trouble clicking? Copy and paste this URL into your browser: https://www.dfskarma.com/football/sams-conviction-column-nfl-week-7/