In one of the more entertaining Week One matchups, two of the AFC's best teams are set to square off. The Kansas City Chiefs have reached the Super Bowl in back to back seasons. But, they have a sour taste in their mouth from the last time they stepped on the field in a game that mattered. On the flip side, the Cleveland Browns are tired of playing the role of spoiler. They believe they should be just as feared as the Chiefs.
In today's game preview article, we will focus on the major headlines as we inch closer to Sunday. What injuries or star players are we monitoring the most? Plus, we will list our keys to victory for both the Chiefs and Browns. Whoever comes through more in those situations will likely be heading home happy. Finally, if you missed our article from Thursday, we listed our top five personnel matchups. You can read that here. Let's kick it off with our top five headlines as we enter Sunday.
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Top Five Headlines
How Close Are These Teams In AFC Rankings?
Going into the season, I would argue that each of these teams are in the top three of the AFC rankings. This becomes even more true for Cleveland, given the recent major injuries that the Baltimore Ravens have suffered. The only other team in the top three in my mind, is the Buffalo Bills.
As a result, this makes for an interesting test to open the season. How bold will each offense be in their play calling? Possibly, being more methodical would lead to either defense becoming increasingly anxious. That method could only work for one squad more than the other, though. The Chiefs have hinted at wanting to run the ball more and likely wanted to show off their new look offensive line. Whereas with the Browns, their dominant running game can only take them so far. You have to score 30+ points to defeat a Patrick Mahomes-led Kansas City squad, period.
There are so many different directions that this game could go in. But, I believe Kansas City is eager to prove themselves after last year's horrible ending to the season. Can Cleveland pull the upset off? Yes. It is going to take a near perfect effort, however, despite their current standing in the AFC.
Mahomes Vs Mayfield
This will be the third meeting all-time in the NFL between Mahomes and Baker Mayfield. The Chiefs have won each of the two previous contests. And even though Mahomes left with an injury in last year's playoff game, Kansas City was calmly in command with a monstrous lead before he went down.
The two former Big 12 foes are capable of going the distance in a high powered shootout. We have seen it before when they faced off in an Oklahoma-Texas Tech game. At the same time, both passers are looking to make improvements in certain areas. They have both accomplished a great deal of success already.
Yet, we want to see Mahomes become more well-rounded in the pocket, while not escaping too early. Can Patrick also become more accurate on deep passes with an increased touch on the football?
Mayfield is entering the last year of his rookie contract before next year's fifth year option. In order to get the massive payday that he envisions, Baker will also need to become more disciplined at remaining in the pocket. Seeing if he can become more consistent when throwing over the middle is another point to watch. The smaller height of his has led to batted down passes at the line of scrimmage and errant throws leading to turnover opportunities.
Pace of Offenses
We touched on it a little bit already. The Browns running game is dangerous. Nonetheless, you cannot lean on that for the entirety of this game. Cleveland has to be able to score in bunches to down the Chiefs.
Kansas City may be more comfortable with a conservative pace, so to speak, in this particular matchup. We know that is not Andy Reid's MO to open the season, however. He is going to swing for the fences and take his shots when he feels necessary. The consistently hot starts for the Chiefs in September is truly remarkable.
Here are Mahomes' numbers in September throughout his career: 10-0 record, 32 touchdown passes, zero interceptions and 330.4 passing yards per game.
The quarterback knows if you struggle in September, it could cost you late in the season or in the playoffs. Watching how aggressive or balanced each team could be will be a fascinating item to watch in determining the outcome of the game.
Chiefs Offensive Line
It is pretty simple. The Kansas City blocking unit is totally revamped. Two big ticket, veteran additions will man the left side of the line (Orlando Brown Jr., Joe Thuney). Essentially three rookies will man the other three spots (Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, Lucas Niang). This group is more physical, prideful of keeping one of the league's best quarterbacks clean and motivated for the opportunity ahead.
All of the matchups they will have against the Browns have been well documented. The expectations are massive. Early on, we will be watching for how Cleveland goes about attacking this unit. Will they overload the side of the rookies? Can Mahomes receive as clean of a pocket as he did in training camp and the preseason?
Kansas City's Defensive Depth
Even though it is the start of a new season, injuries are still being worked through around the league. This includes the Chiefs defensive unit. Safety Tyrann Mathieu tested positive for COVID last week and has still been in the COVID protocol throughout this week. He is vaccinated, so Mathieu's return would involve two straight negative tests. The problem is, he has not practiced all week and he could be limited, even if he plays. We do not know if Mathieu will be activated yet, however.
Meanwhile, defensive end Frank Clark is dealing with a hamstring injury. He suffered it back in the middle of the preseason. He has been limited in practice all week and will likely be on a snap count if he plays. The Chiefs defensive line has performed well without him. But still, Clark was looking more polished and carrying his added weight well in training camp.
Linebacker Willie Gay is also out with a toe injury. He was placed on short term injured reserve, meaning Gay will miss at least the first three weeks of the season. His range, coverage ability and punishing style will be missed heavily. That is no slight to Anthony Hitchens or Nick Bolton. Though, this defensive depth of the Chiefs will be tested heavily to open the season. And it comes in a crucial matchup on the schedule.
Three Keys To Victory
Kansas City Chiefs
Pressure Baker
The Chiefs have been able to win reps and get after the quarterback with perfectly timed blitz calls when the opponent least expects it. Mayfield is still prone to forcing balls into tight windows when it is unnecessary. Meanwhile, his interceptions were down last season (eight). It's important to note that Baker threw 35 interceptions in his first two seasons, though. This includes 21 in 2019. The more you pressure him, the better for the defense.
Win The Trenches
This piggybacks off of that last key somewhat. Nonetheless, the Chiefs will need to dictate and set the line of scrimmage early and often on both sides of the ball. The Kansas City offense is generally more comfortable in long down and distance situations, compared to most other teams around the league. If they can win the initial push upfront on both offense and defense, the Browns may start to become antsy or indecisive.
Eliminate Chubb And Hunt
Kansas City's defense may not be able to totally shut out Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt. The main key is limiting chunk plays. For example, if either back is gaining six yards or more per rush attempt that is going to be too much. Rush attempts must be snuffed out at four yards or shorter. Chubb has averaged over five yards per carry in each of his first three seasons. Last season was his best mark for a single season (5.6 yards per carry). On the other hand, Hunt has averaged 4.2 yards per carry in each season with Cleveland.
Cleveland Browns
Contain Travis Kelce
This is similar to the Chubb/Hunt key from above. You may not be able to limit the number of Travis Kelce's catches. He has 11 straight games with seven or more receptions. More importantly for the Browns, they must be able to tackle him well and limit his yards after the catch. Kansas City may be pushing the ball more vertically to him this season. The Browns must limit those shots to a minimum.
Let Mayfield Cook Early
The Browns should not hesitate in allowing Mayfield to let it fly. If Mathieu is unable to play, you have a less confident safety group by default. Cleveland seemed to catch most teams off guard when throwing it deep last season. If they want to take an early, commanding lead, it may be best to let Mayfield work with rolling pockets or getting quick throws while on the run.
Win Turnover Battle
The Browns ranked ninth best in turnover differential in 2020 (+5). Their total amount of turnovers (21) ranked just 20th best, however. In order to beat this Chiefs team, creating multiple turnovers is one thing you must do. If Cleveland accomplishes this, it forces Coach Reid to adjust from what he was hoping to do offensively.
Statistical Notes
- The Browns are 0-15-1 in their last 16 Week 1 games
- On the flip side, the Chiefs are 7-1 in Week 1 games under Andy Reid
- Coach Reid is also 8-0 all-time as a head coach vs Cleveland
- Including playoffs, this will be the 27th meeting all-time between these two franchises. The Chiefs hold a 14-11-2 edge after the first 26 contests.
Be on the lookout for our FPC Chiefs postgame coverage following Sunday's game. You can follow us on Twitter here. For more great sports and NFL content, stay tuned to Full Press Coverage.
– Braden Holecek is the Kansas City Chiefs managing editor for Full Press Coverage. He covers the NFL. Like and follow on //platform.twitter.com/widgets.js //platform.twitter.com/widgets.js and Facebook.
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